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Analytics Deep Dive

The metrics that actually predict football success — EPA, WPA, DVOA, Next Gen Stats, and why conventional wisdom gets it wrong.

Analytics Deep Dive Guide

EPA, WPA, DVOA, PFF, Next Gen Stats: the complete metrics playbook.

📄 42 pages • Offline access

🔗 Building on Prior Phases

You learned basic stats (yards, TDs, QBR) in Phase 3. This module shows why those stats mislead and what professional analysts actually use to evaluate players and teams. The Week 3 Stats Explained module is your foundation — this is the graduate level.

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EPA
Expected Points Added
TL;DR: Was this play better or worse than expected?
Every NFL play starts from a position with an "expected points" value based on down, distance, and field position. A 1st-and-10 from your own 25-yard line is worth roughly 0.8 expected points. A 1st-and-10 from the opponent's 25 is worth about 3.7. EPA measures how much a play changed that expected value. Example: A 10-yard gain on 1st and 10 from your own 25 moves you to 1st and 10 from your own 35 — worth about 1.4 expected points. You started at 0.8, now you're at 1.4. EPA = +0.6. A sack on the same situation might take you to 2nd and 15 from your own 20 — worth about 0.3 expected points. EPA = -0.5. Why it beats yards: A 5-yard gain on 3rd and 4 (conversion, positive EPA) is vastly more valuable than a 5-yard gain on 2nd and 1 (unconverted, negative EPA). Yards don't distinguish between them. EPA does. QB Evaluation Revolution: EPA/play is now the gold standard for QB evaluation. The league average is ~0.0 EPA/play. Elite QBs consistently post 0.2–0.35 EPA/play. Below -0.1 EPA/play and you're getting replaced. The pre-snap EPA problem: Modern analytics also credits QBs for pre-snap decisions — getting into the right play, drawing the defense into penalties, taking a sack to avoid a fumble. These decisions don't show in traditional stats at all.
Real World Benchmarks
Patrick Mahomes (2022)
Historical tier
+0.31
Josh Allen (2022)
Elite
+0.24
League Average
Baseline
0.00
Replacement Level QB
Job at risk
-0.15
💡 Real World Application
Patrick Mahomes led the NFL in EPA/play from 2018–2023 with remarkable consistency — the most important single statistic in evaluating quarterback value.