🧮 Fourth Down Math

Win probability models show coaches punt too much

4th & 1 — Opponent's 35-yard line

Short yardage near midfield — analytics almost always says GO FOR IT.

Win Probability by Decision

Based on NFL game data & analytics models

Go For ItPunt30%45%60%80%
✅Analytics Says: Go For It

Go for it. Expected win probability gain is +8% vs punting. Most teams still punt here — a massive mistake according to the math.

📖 The Big Picture

Studies show NFL teams could gain ~0.4 wins per season just by going for it more on 4th down. Fear of criticism leads coaches to punt when the math says go. Teams like the Eagles and Chiefs have embraced analytics — and it shows in their records.